The aerospace industry in Mexico post COVID 19: Analysis and prediction using an ARMA model
Abstract
The research analyzes the dynamics of the aerospace industry, focusing on
the actions taken by said industry in the post-COVID19 stage. An ARIMA
model is estimated for the analysis of time series with monthly periods to
obtain a forecast regarding the production of aerospace equipment in
Mexico. Since the ARMA model allows the treatment of past values, both
short and long term, being susceptible to analysis, so the methodology
proposes the use of this stochastic modeling. Preliminary results show
an accelerated growth rate in the production of aerospace equipment to
later have a considerable drop during the development of the COVID19
pandemic.
Keywords
Aerospace industry, ARMA model, COVIV 19
References
- ACI (2021). Airports Council International. Available online: consultado el 05-09-2022 en https://aci.aero/news/2021/03/25/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-the-airport-business-and-the-path-to-recovery/.
- Altfeld, H. (2010). Commercial Aircraft Projects: Managing the Development of Highly Complex Products; Ashgate: Farnham, UK.
- Ayala, F., y C. Bucio (2020). Modelo ARIMA aplicado al tipo de cambio peso-dólar en el periodo 2016-2017 mediante ventanas temporales deslizantes. Revista mexicana de economía y finanzas, 15(3), 331-354.
- Box, E. y M. Jenkins (1976). Time series analysis: forecasting and control. Michigan, Estados Unidos de America: Holden-Day.
- Chesbrough, W. (2003). Open Innovation: The New Imperative for Creating and Profiting from Technology; Harvard Business School Press: Cambridge, MA, USA. pp. 43-56.
- Dubuc, A. (2021). Aerospace update: One year after the pandemic, the needs are greater but the policies are a long time coming. Institut du Québec. 1(1), 1-15.
- E.M.I.M (2022). Encuesta Mensual de la Industria Manufacturera en Banco de información económica, consultado el 01-11-2022 en https://www.inegi.org.mx/sistemas/bie/.
- Rincón, L. (2012). Introducción a los procesos estocásticos. Ciudad de México, México: Las prensas de ciencias - UNAM.
- Wiśniewski, R. (2012). Defence industry in the european unión challenges and opportunities intimes of economic crisis. Przegląd Strategiczny, 2(2), 95-113.
- Woo, A.; B. Park; H. Sung; H. Yong; J. Chae, & S. Choi (2021). An Analysis of the Competitive Actions of Boeing and Airbus in the Aerospace Industry Based on the Competitive Dynamics Model. Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity, 7(3), 192.