ECONOMIC PANORAMA is a bi-annually published journal which objective is to publish results of research work in the field of economics and related subjects with a rigorous theoretical and/or practical content. It has its headquarters in the Superior School of Economy of the National Polytechnic Institute. Founded in 2005 by a group of professors from the same institution. ECONOMIC PANORAMA has the purpose to become a reference for consultation both in national and international spheres. ECONOMIC PANORAMA has the backing of prestigious researchers from Mexico and different universities abroad, which are part of the editorial board and reflect plurality in visions about the world economy. Journal incoporated to: CONACYT SCIELO LATINDEX REPEC
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Real options, an application in projects evaluation in the agricultural sector in Mexico
The objective of this research is to show the advantages offered by the royal options in decision making in the agricultural sector, specifically the area of production of green tomato in Mexico. Using the historical price of the sale in the Central of Supply of Mexico City, obtained from the Sistema Nacional de Información e Integración de Mercados (SNIIM), prove that the price of the tomate present a marked behavior in the period of analysis, while that the trend is soft but statistically significant, so the price could be with certainty estimated. It is found that the methodology of the real options adds value to the project, however, different values were obtained in obtaining the project volatility. The results also suggest that farmers should postpone the harvest period.
Copyright (c) 2026 Panorama Económico https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0
Recent overview of the development and evolution of DPPI in China
The article analyzes the construction of China‘s institutional framework, from the reform and economic opening of the late 1970s to create and adjust its intellectual property rights system in all its forms, to adjust it the international standard. It also describes the stages China has undergone to design and build the institutional framework. It is postulated that China will only succeed in becoming an economy of medium economic development in this century if it achieves to keep an institutional framework ad hoc to its economic dynamism, as if it does not guarantee the right to intellectual property, it will not be able to maintain its recent leadership in the application trademarks and other names of intellectual property, which is the basis of the global economy. It concludes, with the analysis of the main challenges facing China, to become a knowledge economy.
The dependence of trajectory in the institutions: mechanisms reinforcement and learning processes
Institutions change over time. The institutional change is incremental and its direction is path-dependent. In this paper, it is emphasized that the path dependency is not a deterministic inertia but imposes constraints that specifically frame the present decision alternatives of the agents of change. Moreover, it is shown that increasing returns are an important source of permanence of political, economic or social institutions. However, there are also other reinforcing mechanisms that can perpetuate the orientation of institutional frameworks, such as functional ones, of power, legitimating, layering and conversion.
Two game theory models applied to the Institutions Administrators of Retirement Funds (afores) in Mexico: a theoretical approach
In Mexico the pension system based on Institutions Administrators of Retirement Funds (AFORES) is relatively new, that is why this study shows two game theory applications in order to provide different decisions tools to the economics agents involved into individual capitalization pension market in Mexico, and help them to maximize their economic and personnal profits. The results show the applicability of Bertrand model to modeling the way in AFORES compete in prices and the Hotelling model utility to modeling how AFORES compete for a horizontal differentiation market.
Electronic invoice: asynchronous innovation
The electronic bill was introduced in Mexico to fight against tax evasion. In this paper, we show how the digital gap which exists in Mexico avoids the proper use of the electronic bill and becomes an obstacle for the formalization of enterprises. Hence, we observe asynchrony between the electronic tool imposed by a public policy and the technologic and institutional environment in which it is used. It is evident the need of a fiscal policy adequate for the Mexican micro and median firms. We proof this through a principal-agent model.
Analysis of welfare and food security: the case of soup kitchens in the City of Mexico
The present paper aims to present an overview over the access to food of the inhabitants in Mexico City. Considering this as a basic social right of the human being in the development of all his faculties. Firstly, through the consultation of information available from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the National Council for Evaluation of Social Development Policy (CONEVAL) and the Evaluation Council of the Social Development of Mexico City (Evalúa CDMX) regarding the diagnosis of the problem of food in the Latin American region and in Mexico City. The outcomes of the present investigation focus on the analysis of the level of food insecurity present among the users of these spaces and how, through the Peoples Dinners in Mexico City has achieved that three quarters of them have reach food security thanks to the food rations to which they have access in such dining places.
Impact of the degree of relative risk aversion, the interest rate and the exchange rate depreciation on economic welfare in a small open economy
This paper is aimed at assessing the impact of the degree of relative risk aversion on economic welfare for different levels of the interest rate and the exchange rate depreciation in a small open beconomy. To do this, a representative consumer-producer makes decisions on consumption, money balances, and leisure. In order to find a closed-form solution of the household’s economic welfare, it is assumed that individual’s preferences belong to the family of Constant Relative Risk Aversion (CRRA) utility functions. Several comparative statics graphical experiments about the effects of the degree of relative risk aversion on economic welfare for different levels of nominal variables are carried out. Finally, we find that, under the stated assumptions, household’s economic welfare seen as a function of the degree of relative risk aversion is responsive to different values of nominal variables.
Stock markets, volatility and economic growth: evidence from Cameroon, Ivory Coast and Nigeria
This study examines in one hand the relationship between stock market return volatility and economic growth, and, in the other one, how stock market development can influence economic growth. The methods used in this paper are Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) framework to apprehend return volatility and VAR framework to capture any link between stock market and economic growth. Time series quarterly data used are from 2000 to 2015 for both Nigeria and Ivory Coast and from 2008 to 2015 for Cameroon. The study reveals that: 1) DSX results are not significant causing economic growth, neither the converse, showing how desperately Cameroon market needs to be boosted if the country wishes to reach an acceptable economic situation in 2035. The study also reveals, 2) none significant causality link going from stock market development to GDP in Ivory Coast and Nigeria; it also found that, 3) main macroeconomic variables influencing (or influenced by) stock market are Inflation and Money supply. The research finally reveals that, 4) NSE is more volatile than BRVM or DSX.
The financing of commercial banking and the capital ma ket: its relationship with inequality in distribution of income in Mexico
This paper analyze the relationship between financing from commercial banks and the capital market with unequal income distribution in Mexico. It is found that the financing of commercial banking to companies is asso ciated with decreases in inequality of income distribution, while the capital market financing is associated with increases in inequality. This is because commercial banks can provide financing to a wider range of borrowers in cluding households and MSMEs, which generate about 50% of the product and the bulk of employment in Mexico. Instead, the capital market remains restricted to large companies, whose number has decreased.
The aim is to show that the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) process under going for the last years, has been opposite to the literature which states that such process during bonanza and boom growth periods. Through seven parts, we study the different and main financing options for the firms, basic M&A concepts and why they take place, their characteristics and macroeco nomic environment where they mainly happen, an historical review, some macroeconomic environment variables and the M&A process since the 2008 crisis, the most relevant cases in the recent years, and some interpretations. We conclude that the stagnation macroeconomic environment has not been an obstacle for a new M&A wave.
Quartely analysis of the legal complexity of the Value Addea Tax law in the periodo from 1978 to 2016
Through the Katz and Bommarito's model, we studied the legal complexity of the Value Added Tax Law, from its original version published on 1978, until the current version (2016). The data reveals that the Law became more complex over time, in terms of structure, entropy and interdependence, the variables considered by this study for measuring legal complexity.
Social capital and quality education. The program of girls and boys talent of the Mexico city
As talented children in early stages of education are in a formative process, they must be stimulated to develop at their maximum capacity in order to increase their potential future incomes (for them and for their families) as well as their communities social capital. However, in less developed areas educa tional systems usually do not attend the students differences in talent and learning capabilities. In 2007, the government of Mexico City launched a pro gram called Niñas y Niños Talento, with the purpose of offering additional specialized courses in disciplines from the areas of sciences, arts and sports to talented children enrolled in the city’s public schools of basic education (primary and lower secondary). This paper presents the results of an analysis of the impact of that program on the students’ socio-affective and creative behavior and capabilities, carried out with the help of econometric analysis, applied to data gathered from two surveys directed by the author among beneficiaries of the program in 2008 and 2010. It is concluded that the pro gram has important positive effects on both types of students behavior which suggests a positive effect on the population’s associative behavior, which is the defining element of social capital.
Monetary variables and the formation of speculative bubble: a frequency synchronization analysis (1992-2013)
At present, there is an increasing tendency in studying phenomena of economic and financial nature from nonlinear approaches. In this sense, the present research tries to examine the existence of a relation between the instrumentation of monetary policy and the formation of speculative bubbles. To do that, we propose to study the relationship between these systems as chaotic to be able to determine the phase synchronization. The results show strong evidence of complete synchronization and delay synchronization between the examined sistems.
STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND DEINDUSTRIALIZATION IN MEXICO
This paper presents an analysis of the Mexican economy. The Mexican economy has transformed and suffered major changes in its productiveand sectorial structures during recent decades. Becoming an open, stagnant economy that expels labor towards the US. This demonstrates how as the nine ties began along with foreign competition, the dynamic failure of the industry was strengthened and early outsourcing of the Mexican econo my deepened. Which resulted in an accelerated deindustrialization and con secutive spurious absorption of labor. This point of view reviews the main con cepts of development theory which describes the nature of structural change and analyzes the behavior of the Mexican economy during that period.
Autoregressive econometric analysis of the real exchange rate flexible in Mexico 1999-2012
The theorical explanation about the behavior of the real Mexican exchange rate in the long term by internal and external factors, from prices levels to monetary levels in USA allows to propose a monetary and autoregressive model, considering the shocks analysis of each factor and its effects in the long-term. The results obtained explain the main reasons about the devaluations on the Mexican currency in the last twelve years
Copyright (c) 2025 Panorama Económico https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0
Do microenterprises' size and status matter to access informal finance?
Formal microenterprises (MEs) when cannot obtain the resources they need through the formal financial sector may resort to other informal intermediaries. In this paper we analyze whether MEs, according to their size and registration, rely on informal financial lenders. Through a sample of 400 MEs drawn in the city of Puebla (Mexico) during 2006, we found that both informal and formal MEs resort to informal finance but, although MEs' status matters per-se, informal middle sized MEs rely on moneylenders as well as on loans from family and friends. As formal MEs, no matter their size, seek for funding in the fringe financial market too, the results suggest that credit for MEs is scarce.
MEXICO: A COUNTRY THAT DOES NOT MOVE. AN ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL MOBILITY FROM A CLASS APPROACH
This study presents an analysis of social mobility considering a class path analysis. The structure of Mexican society, grouped into classes, shows inadequate social mobility. This phenomenon does not show fluency in terms of vertical mobility (between classes), and also the relative distances in living standards between classes are maintained over time. This paper presents evidence that social mobility inter and intra generational per class, are intrinsically linked. The social class, to which it belongs, guides the fate of the lives of individuals more than the wishes of the same persons. Origin becomes in destiny, and the living conditions of people depend on two conditions: class membership and the place that it has in the distribution of resources among the social classes and groups.
EVOLUTION AND PROSPECTS OF THE NATIONAL FISCAL COORDINATION
The creation and evolution of the National System of Fiscal Coordination in Mexico is analyzed; from the tax national conventions of the 1920s and 1930s to today and how they have regulated the fiscal relations between the federal government and the states of Mexico, identifying the weaknesses of the current system of fiscal coordination and proposing a review of some of its key axes.
FORECAST OF INCOMES BY INTERNATIONAL VISITOR TO MEXICO: A HIERARCHICAL SERIES APPROACH
The aim of this paper is to identify the most efficient forecasting model of income from visitors to Mexico. The received theory of forecasting claims that hierarchical methods are systematically the best forecasting models of hierarchical time series, a claim that has not been evaluated in a large number of cases. Consequently, in this research several methods are evaluated, following the conventional approach of selecting two samples (i.e. training and test sets). Based on the mean absolute scaled error (MASE), our results indicate that, in the case of the variable of interest, the bottom-up ARIMA is the most efficient forecasting method.
Hotelling model applied to the AFORES in Mexico
The AFORES pension system in Mexico is quite new, that is why a high percentage of the population does not have this benefit and does not have the necessary information to maximize the amount of their pension when they will be retire. This work presents the applicability of the Hotelling Game Theory Model to the retirement savings system in Mexico. In order to do this, it is shown the worker’s utility function, which consists of calculating the excess of the net income per Administradora de Fondos para el Retiro (AFORE) with the performance of the index of prices and market rates of the Mexican Stock Exchange (IPC). The data used for this study was for the period of March 2009 to December 2015. Also, the existing 11 AFORES to date were compared. The results show wich AFORE would be chosen by a risk-averse worker, based on the relation risk-performance. Finally, we show the AFORES’demand to view if the decision-making by the workers in Mexico is based on the components presented.
Towards a model of capital asset pricing for Mexico: analysis individual assetstime-varying coefficients
Analyzing the behavior of time-variyng beta coefficients estimated through the Kalman filter for a sample of Mexican assets listed on the Mexican Stock Exchange, it can be seen that a model with changing betas, in which asset returns depend on a local factor and an international one, allows to estimate risk premiums of these assets. Given the dependence exhibited all the studied assets in relation to a domestic factor, the evidence shown in this study supports the hypothesis that the Mexican market is not fully integrated into the international. That is, in our analysis is found that the characteristics of the systematic risk of the Mexican studied assets are consistent with the valuation of assets in the context of partially segmented market. Consequently, the results shown here suggest that it is appropriate to use a international model of asset valuation (ICAPM), with an international factor and a domestic factor, and time-varying beta coefficients instead of models with a single domestic factor.
Parametric characterization yields prices oil 2010-2015
In this paper yields oil prices Brent, West Texas Intermediate and Mexican export mix are characterized by the parameters of a no-normal probability distribution. The period 2010-2015 is reviewed in two time windows: low oil prices and high crude prices. It is found evidence of an appropriate adjustment of the generalized hyperbolic distribution for both subperiods. Therefore can analyze the behavior of yields through changes in the parameters of the cumulative distribution.
Private consumption and public deficit in latin america: theory and evidence of ricardian equivalence hypothesis
This brief provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis, this argument implies the neutrality of public deficit over the individual consumption. The theoretical analysis summarizes the various controversies that this theory has generated among economists and their confrontation with the classical and Keynesian theories. The empirical analysis provides an assessment of compliance of the hypothesis for the case of 11 countries in Latin America, and is contrasted against a Keynesian consumption model. By using a panel data model, the long term relations of the Ricardian Equivalence and Keynesian models are estimated. It is concluded that consumers in Latin America do not take into account the public financing way at the time of consumption.
Financial innovations in Latin America: derivatives markets and determinants of risk management
This paper is aimed at examining the theoretical determinants and empirical evidence on the use of derivatives in Latin America for risk management. The contingent claims, the development of their market, and their use, is undoubtedly one of the most powerful financial innovations available to individuals and businesses. It is shown that though Latin American firms use derivatives, there is a lack of research to understand its determinants. The causes and incentives for the development of the Chilean derivatives market are investigated, concluding that its development could not take off in exchanges; however, the OTC market has shown a healthy development. Finally, goals and challenges for Latin American countries are stated and potential research ideas to fill the gap on empirical aspects of risk management in these economies are proposed
Economic incentives in the decision of individuals and companies to operate in the formal or informal sector: popular insurance and collection efficiency
Firms and individuals face economic incentives that affect their decision about to operate either formal or informal sector. In Mexico, the Seguro Popular acts as incentive towards informality because, its free origin re- duces the cost of illnesses and allows a greater consumption level; this reverts the natural bias of the labor remuneration offered in the formal sector. On the other hand, low tax collection efficiency reduces cost that firms have to deal for operating at the intormal sector, establishing an incentive tor this sector Also, formal firms will demand informal labor force, since the no credible menace for punishment. The aim of the paper is to model the labor market regarding these economic incentives. It is found that it is necessary to review social programs that substitutes formal remunerations, such as Seguro Popular, while improving tax collection efficiency in order to go out of not optimal equilibrium in terms of labor and economic growth.
Estimation of demand for private car use in the metropolitan area of the valley of mexico: a tobit analysis
In this work the effect of household income is analvzed as well as socioeconomic and geographical demand for use of private cars in the Metropolitan Zone of the Mexican Valley variables. A Tobit model to capture the effects of households that demand the use of cars and homes that could be used to enter the market. The results show that the most important in determining the variable vehicle use by households is income. In addition, our study shows that variables such as age, number of employed people and distance, significantly affect the demand for car use and that the most important on the use of the same is due to the new consumers entering the marketp
Economic vulnerability and a geing in mexico
Elderly people (EP) are people aged 60 years and over. In Mexico EP participation is increasing and for those EP residing in urban areas, pensions constitute the main income source but, in the rural counterpart EP’s income includes: family transfers, pensions and government targeted programmes’ transfers. When EP retire income decreases sharply because neither pensions nor income from rents smooth wages drop. This situation entails that most EP in both rural as wellas urban areas, are poor. Women are mostly affected because earning a lower income and having a larger life expectancy than men. Thus, besides being associated with the rural/urban areas and the ageing process, poverty is also gender biased. The economic outlook for EP is not favorable as elderly economic vulnerability might be increasing for future generations.
Analysis of the breakdown of changes in certain well-being indicators: mexico 2006-2010
Indicators of welfare depends on several variable factors each. By using the Shapley value of cooperative game theory, we measure the importance of each factor in the changes of a particular index of welfare. We apply the technique to the specific cases of measures of human development and poverty in Mexico with data from 2006 to 2010.
Institutions, classical economics and evolutionary economics
In this paper considerations about evolutionary theory and its possibilities to complement the classical theory of profit maximization are offered. Specifically, imitation is shown as an alternative to classical optimization when there bounded rationality. The evolution of corrupt behavior is analyzed in a society of individuals maximizing their welfare but must make decisions under conditions of imperfect information.
The nexus between energy consumption and economic growth: the case of México
This study examines the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Mexico within a multivariate framework in order to determine the degree to which energy consumption influences economic growth prospects in Mexico. Throughout this study, we look at the relationship between different forms of energies and economy growth. We used the granger causality test, which enabled us to verify the direction of causality between the variables of interest; the Breusch-Godtrey Serial Correlation LM test, to test for serial correlation of the stochastic variable and the ADF to test for stationary of the model. The results showed that there is a bi- directional relationship between economic growth and energy consumption in Mexico. Looking at all the sectors of usage of energy, we found that electricity produced from coal, nuclear and hydroelectric sources impact positively on economic growth, whereas electricity produced from natural gas and oil highly negatively impact on economic growth.