Vol. 20 No. 41 (2024)

Artículos

Antifragility of Black Swan events in the Mexican markets

Published 2024-12-02

  • Guillermo Sierra Juárez

Guillermo Sierra Juárez
Universidad de Guadalajara, Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos, CUCEA

Abstract

According to the review of the literature on Black Swan events, there is no complete axiomatic definition, nor a forecast for their detection. The reasoning “It is not possible to predict the unexpected.” The concepts of fragility-antifragility aim to present a bridge for understanding and detection with the Black Swan events. However, in practice for a selection of market and structural variables in the Mexican economy in a period of twenty years, there are events considered extreme or black swan and on the other hand the concept of antifragility fragility can be estimated without. However, there is no evidence of a causal relationship between the two.

Keywords

Black Swan, Antifragility, Finantial markets

PDF (Spanish)

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